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In a close election, every vote matters. But in the 2020 presidential race, there’s a good argument that one group mattered more than others, young voters. Youth turnout increased 11 percentage points from 2016 to 2020, and according to Pew Research, voters aged 18 to 29 preferred Biden by 24 percentage points. But this year, things seem much less straightforward.
Polling data shows President Biden’s approval rating has tanked among young Americans. Polls also show that he continues to be hounded by the perception that he’s too old for the job. And young activists are creating a public relations nightmare for the campaign, whether it’s protests for more direct action on climate change or demanding a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.
So in a general election match-up of familiar elderly candidates, what can we learn about a critical demographic that’s often talked about, but less frequently spoken to — the kids? From “The New York Times,” I’m Astead Herndon. This is “The Run-Up.”
Understanding young voters can be hard to do. In a lot of polls, the sample size of younger Americans, like millennials and Gen Z, is too small to draw big conclusions. So when I heard that NextGen America, one of the country’s largest Democratic groups dedicated to young voters, was doing a new comprehensive look at the political attitudes of Americans aged 18 to 35, I knew I wanted to talk with the head of the group, Cristina Tzintzun Ramirez, about the findings.
You know, we wanted to talk to you because outside of the work you all do generally, NextGen just completed a poll focused on the November election and specifically measuring the attitudes of young voters headed into it. Can you tell me about who participated in the poll, what drove you all to do it, and what were the biggest questions you were seeking for it to answer?
Well, for us as an organization, we target young people ages 18 to 35. This is a huge generational voting block. It is a voting block that votes overwhelmingly progressive. But a lot of polls don’t pick up on the nuances that exist with young people. So, for example, in any poll you see with young people, you’re going to see that young people have questions and concerns with the two-party system.
You’re going to see that a lot of young people see themselves as independents, even though they are overwhelmingly choosing the Democratic Party to vote for and remake the vision of the country that they want to inherit. And so this poll lets us dig in and figure out amongst those 18 to 35-year-olds, who do we need to target and focus on to get them to turn out and defeat Donald Trump and elect Joe Biden?
Yeah, so I mean, one, I appreciate you including 30 to 35 in the young people range.
You’re classified in there, Astead, as a young voter.
Listen, that’s a — we had a team discussion today about what we should take as young people to mean, but I am just going to take the NextGen definition, which includes me also. I mean, you are right that when we look at the polling sample numbers of 18 - to 35-year-olds, you don’t get the nuances between them. You saying you all did this right now to know where the trouble spots are for Democrats and how you could fix them six months out from the election.
That’s right, the trouble spots, the opportunities, where do we need to focus our resources on this big cohort to turn them out? Because Joe Biden got elected in 2020, in huge part because of young people. Now I want to remind people, Joe Biden was not the youth vote candidate of 2020. That was Bernie Sanders, the older other white guy.
Yes, yeah. Well, let’s get into some of the top line numbers from you all’s recent poll. What did the numbers say about Biden versus Trump in a two-candidate match-up versus what did they say and Biden versus Trump when you include third parties?
I mean, I think what we saw from our poll is that young people have questions and concerns about both candidates. We saw that in a two-party match-up or a two-candidate match-up that Biden defeats Donald Trump by 12 points.
OK.
If you add in third party choices, that shrinks to 9 points. And we saw that 20 percent of young people that we surveyed said they were considering voting for a third party candidate. So those —
OK.
— and RFK taking the biggest chunk of that portion. And we’re seeing RFK spend a lot of money on TikTok and focusing and targeting young people right now.
OK. So with the one-on-one match-up with Biden versus Trump, Biden’s ahead by 12 points. In a one-on-one versus third party match-up, you have Biden’s lead among young people shrink down to 9 points. How should we understand that, especially in the context of what happened back in 2020 with the same match-up?
I was looking at Pew analysis earlier today that said, if we look around the same age group cohort, Biden won that group by nearly 24 points in 2020. So what do we think is driving that 10 percent, 15 percent drop-off to the numbers we’re seeing now?
Yeah, there’s a lot of young people — like I said — that have concerns and questions. And to be clear, in 2020, we spent a lot of resources and time and energy reaching out to young people to convince them to vote for Joe Biden. He was underwater with young voters in 2020.
Certainly.
The folks that we targeted and reached out to and talked about the difference between Biden and Trump, we were able to see major gains. So it’s very similar to that in 2020, but we have seen that drop-off. But when you dig in and you ask young people — especially with the youngest cohort — these are new voters. They weren’t around last election, and they don’t remember the record of Donald Trump because they are so young.
But let me think back to four years ago. When we think about 2020 and I think about what young people used to say about Biden then, it was often the sense that he was too old. There was often a sense that he was maybe out of touch. Are you saying those are the same reasons that are informing maybe the soft support we’re seeing right now, or is it something that’s transpired in those four years?
It is. It is part that they never saw him. There is a portion of the youth electorate that is concerned about Joe Biden’s age. And they’re more concerned about Joe Biden’s age than Donald Trump’s age. However, they are more concerned about Donald Trump as a threat to democracy in the country than they are about Joe Biden’s age.
OK.
So I think when you ask young people what the Biden administration has done, there is a disconnect on what they’ve delivered on student debt, on climate legislation with the Inflation Reduction Act, on gun safety. And when you’re able to point that out to young people and educate them, they are willing to switch their vote. And so that’s where we see areas of opportunity for the Biden administration is pointing to progressive policy.
The other thing you can obviously do is point to Donald Trump’s age, because he’s no young spring chicken himself. And as an organization that cares about progressive policy, we endorse Joe Biden because for us, it doesn’t matter if Donald Trump was 50 years younger, his policies feel straight out of the 1950s for most young people.
So I hear what you’re saying, that while there are certainly some concerns about age that were true in 2020 and true now, what you’re mostly seeing is a — what you’re identifying as a knowledge gap between what the Biden campaign has done in terms of tangible policy accomplishments and how that’s translated to some young folks.
I guess another question I would ask, though, is it does seem like a big difference between four years ago and now is there has been an outcry about the administration’s policy in terms of supporting Israel’s actions in Gaza. And we have seen a lot of that activism driven by young people. How much did that issue come up in the poll, and should that be seen as a factor that’s contributing to Biden’s — at this point — smaller than expected advantage among young folks?
Yeah, we see a huge number of young people saying they care about foreign policy in this election compared to last election. So in 2022, when you had the situation in Ukraine clearly at the forefront of foreign policy, just 4 percent of young people said that foreign policy was a top issue for them. We’ve seen now 82 percent of young people —
82 percent?
82 percent say they see foreign policy as an important issue. And you have close to 70 percent of young people displeased with the Biden administration’s position on Gaza and Palestine and its support of the Israeli government’s efforts.
So it is clear that in the polling that there is a, frankly, a backlash from young folks and it’s coming because of the administration’s policy as of now. Did your poll or focus group or research show any way that, let’s say, the administration was to embrace a permanent ceasefire or with the kind of new pressure that the administration is trying to put on the Israeli government. Was there any evidence that is enough or if that would speak to what some of these young folks are looking for?
Our poll showed two things, right? It showed that there’s a clear disapproval of the administration’s handling. But when you get to what should be done in response, they’re divided on an alternative approach. And so that becomes the challenge for the administration. You still do have overwhelmingly Democrats and progressive young people wanting a ceasefire and restriction. You have independents amongst young people — which is a pretty significant portion — in the middle on what should be done.
And so that’s where I think the administration will struggle, is figuring out the pathway forward. But overwhelmingly, if the administration were to call for an overall ceasefire, I think it would help speak better to the portion of the youth electorate that is very concerned about this issue.
Interesting. Another thing that stuck out when I was looking at the trend lines of the poll was that it seemed as if some of these problems were super localized among 18 - to 24-year-olds, even more so than 24 to 35. What was it among this group specifically that you think was driving them to be less Biden-supportive than other cohorts?
You know, if you’re 18 years old, you were 10 years old when Donald Trump was elected. And so, you know, you’re 10 years old, you probably had great parents that shielded you and didn’t want you to hear the sounds of crying babies being ripped from their mothers at the border, the sight of Heather Heyer being run over by white supremacists in Charlottesville. Those were things your parents probably didn’t want you to see or hear, and so you may not know of that record.
A lot of young people in 2020 were driven to turn out to defeat Donald Trump and the threat that they saw he posed. And so for this cohort of younger people, they need to be educated about Donald Trump and the threat he poses to really motivate them. And that’s also what we saw from our polling, is that learning who Joe Biden is and his track record on progressive policy is critical for them to learn. But more than anything, learning about Donald Trump and his positions — especially on issues like abortion — will drive this cohort to turn out and vote for Joe Biden.
Interesting. So the thing that most moved this cohort wasn’t just saying that Joe Biden, here’s some good things Joe Biden’s done from the progressive lens, but even more than that was saying here are some bad things Donald Trump has done from the progressive lens.
Yeah, here is Donald Trump. You may have just read the news and Donald Trump tried to say he’s not for an abortion ban. But little did you know that he was the president that nominated the Supreme Court justices to overturn Roe and took away the right of tens of millions of women to decide what happened with their own body and their own health. And so that’s an important record to talk about, especially when you talk about his attacks on abortion, civil and human rights. That is a very big motivator for this generation.
You know, we talked about this earlier, but beyond the candidates, are there any specific issues that matter the most to this age cohort?
We saw within this cohort abortion being a top-motivating issue. Obviously the economy, and for us — especially on the economic question — we’ll get questions about the Biden administration’s economic positions and how young people are feeling about inflation. And it’s not a surprise that young people are feeling the pinch of inflation and the higher cost of living in rent and housing. This is the first generation to be worse off than their parents. They have less assets to be able to deal with, economic shifts.
But, where we also have seen the Biden administration be able to improve its position with young people on the economy are their policy positions. So 88 percent of young people support labor unions now. They want a living wage instead of a minimum wage. They want equal pay for women. So the Biden administration leans on those policies that clearly distinguish them from the Republican Party. That is how Democrats and the Biden administration can win the youth vote on the economy as well.
Interesting. I mean, I guess I see how that works in relationship to Donald Trump. One question I have is, I remember last year, Biden’s support of DNC-type people telling me that the policy accomplishments will win the day and that we would see movement in polling fronts about people when they see that the policies have set in. That hasn’t really happened yet.
Even when it comes to climate and things like the IRA, what is the gap between the actual actions of the administration and the fact that some of that stuff hasn’t really set in for the populations they’re trying to target?
Yeah, I think we have to understand that the ecosystem of media and information has changed rapidly — for especially young people. You know, as an organization, for example, we have never spent a penny — and nor will we ever probably unless there’s a big shift, which I doubt it — on a television advertisem*nt, for example. We have only worked with influencers and finding young people on social media. We’re going to have thousands of organizers being on everything from Discord and gaming applications to even dating apps and sliding into people’s DMs.
The Biden campaign, we’ve started to see them invest more in advertising on TikTok and working with influencers. That has to be really mobilized at a greater level because you can see the gains — literally — the gains that RFK is making right now as he starts to invest more into advertising on TikTok and reaching young people with his message. So we know from our own polling that if they reach young people with the right messages and the right messengers, they’re going to start cutting into those numbers. But they have to spend the time and money on it and do it as early as possible.
If Biden won 2020 driven by youth populations coming around to him, and if we through the work that you all do and the work that others have done, that those positive messages can shift those voters, why haven’t they happened yet?
Well, we’ve only had one election since Biden was elected, which was 2022. And again, if you went back and read the paper, “The New York Time,” “Washington Post,” whatever, anything before the election of 2022, it was going to be headlines about young voters depressed, don’t support Biden, unlikely to turn out, aren’t favorable as much as they should be to Democrats. Election happened, young people turned out in record numbers for Democrats.
See, you are providing a helpful reminder, which is that registering your distaste at this point is not the same as not voting. It’s not the same as saying you’re not going to participate at all. And there is very much a universe where young people say all the things that they don’t like about the administration’s foreign policy or about Biden’s age. But then still, two to three weeks before the election, identify the choice that you’re kind of laying out here and end up backing Democrats. I guess I’m just asking, isn’t that a big bet?
Astead, it gives me heart palpitations every single election. Like, that’s the reality. But I know, and our organization knows from our 10-year record of registering 1.5 million young people and targeting literally millions of young people each election and trying to turn them out to vote, that if you spend the time and money and effort connecting with young people authentically around progressive policy and then tell them about the candidate, they will turn out and vote.
Donald Trump was defeated in 2020 in huge part because of young people. The red wave that was supposed to happen and was promised to happen in 2022 did not happen because of young people. We are in a moment where young people are exercising their voting power at much greater numbers. They are very politically-aware. This is also the most progressive generation in American history, and I think it’s fine for them to have questions, concerns and demands of the party that they’re choosing, the Democratic Party.
They’re not finished remaking the party to move it in the direction they want to see. And that’s OK. But it’s clear they are choosing with their votes, which party they’re putting their bet on.
Is the party listening to them, and what is the evidence that they are?
I think the party is listening to them. I don’t think that, in my opinion and my experience, that you elect good people and they just do the right thing. I think you elect good people and then you push them to deliver on their campaign promises. I don’t think the Biden administration would have canceled the level of student debt that it has had it not been for young people organizing.
We don’t get the Inflation Reduction Act, the single-largest investment by any country on the planet, without young people pushing and organizing. We don’t get the Office of Gun Safety at the federal level without young people pushing and organizing for it. So, yes, the Biden administration has been responsive. It’s passed more progressive policy than any elected official presidential official in my lifetime. And now we have to make sure that its — young people understand that we haven’t gotten everything we wanted, but that’s OK. That’s why we’re going to elect Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to give us four more years and win even more than we’ve already won.
So again, we don’t get to all of the huge policy wins we’ve had for progressive policy if it were not for young people making this administration nervous.
Yeah. You know, you mentioned the 20 percent that said they’re interested in third parties. We started by talking about the direct Biden-Trump match-up. But I also wanted to ask you how we should view this number. Is this 20 percent just looking for another option?
Well, we saw that nearly half of that 20 percent that wanted to vote third party was really soft, that as soon as you started talking to them about the record of either candidate, they were quick to be willing to change their vote.
OK.
So for us, we’re going to make sure that’s a huge cohort that we’re talking to as well, those people that are thinking of third party because they are double-haters, people that don’t like either candidate. However, again, the majority of them voted for Joe Biden in 2020. So that’s a real advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump.
Do you have a specific goal in mind when it comes to November? Is there a turnout target? Is there a percentage of younger voters you want to support Biden? Or is the only goal simply Biden’s re-election regardless of the route to that goal?
I mean, for us, we are working as hard as we can to make sure that we’re hitting that 50 percent youth voter turnout mark this election. And we want to see 60 percent of them voting for Joe Biden.
OK, so we’re saying move up that turnout a little bit and keep them about the same place when in terms the percentage of voters would be the goal that NextGen has.
It would almost be on par for what we saw in 2020.
OK. Even if Biden were to win re-election, does it sound —
I don’t like this even-if. Go on.
I mean, listen. In the universe that Joe Biden wins the election, doesn’t this still add to a growing trend of a rising generation that feels further and further away from electoral politics in the party themselves? I understand that you are an organization that has endorsed Biden, that you want Biden to win. But just separate from that, is the idea of nominating an 81-year-old president for re-election — like, with that reality, is there any chance the Democrats are doing long-term damage to their relationship with this next generation, even if he does win in November?
I just don’t see it that way. The way I see it is young people are fighting for progressive policy wins. I also think it’s a false reality when you bring up that perspective, given that the most popular youthful candidate is even older, which is Bernie Sanders. So to me, it’s about what does the Democratic Party do as an institution and as candidates do to invite and welcome young people in and understand? And I think they’re doing a much better job.
If we go back even to 2018, when AOC won her race, the Democratic Party was cringing at some of the demands that young people and the progressive, youthful arm that she was bringing into the party were demanding. And now, instead, they’re sitting down with those organizations, they’re sitting down with those leaders. And we look at that, at how much the party overall has moved on economic issues. It was a wild idea to say we were going to cancel student debt. It was a wild idea to say the minimum wage should be $15 an hour. It was a wild idea to say we were going to really invest the full resources to tackle the climate crisis. Those are now center to the Democratic party, and that’s because of young people. And it’s made our country better, in my opinion.
The last question I have, and then we’ll totally let you go, is just to give a specific answer to this voter I think about all the time. There was an open discussion over Thanksgiving food in November about whether a group of younger Democrats were going to back Biden in November. And I remember one person saying that she wasn’t going to vote. And then someone was trying to push her saying, you know, that just means that someone else is going to win. You’re going to have no say.
And she was like, that’s the point. I don’t want it to be because of me, because I don’t like either of those options. What would your response to that sentiment be to the person who’s sick of that lesser of two evils argument?
I mean, we know from our polling that when we talk about very fundamental rights that have gone backwards 50 years because you sat out an election or you choose not to vote, that that is what will motivate folks to understand that if you want to have the basic decision about when, where, and how you make a baby and when you make a family or what happens with your health, that your vote really matters.
I think when people see the tangible difference — and that’s why abortion is so clear for so many young people that are of reproductive age — that when the state and religious zealots get involved in your decisions about what you decide with your body, it makes it very clear what the consequences and circ*mstances are of sitting out an election.
Thank you so much, Christina. I really appreciate your time and for chatting with us.
Thanks so much. Take care.
After the break, we talked to young voters themselves. After hearing from Christina about this new NextGen polling and the reality of President Biden’s vulnerabilities with younger voters, we wanted to hear from some young people directly. So we called some people we knew were politically engaged who my colleagues had met at a climate protest in New York City back in September.
[PHONE RINGING]
- eloise navarro
Hello?
- astead herndon
Hello? Can you hear me?
- eloise navarro
Yeah, sorry. I’m in, I’m downtown, so I’m just trying to find a slightly quieter spot to hang out.
- astead herndon
OK, No problem. Well, thank you for your time. I appreciate you picking up. I mean, can you just tell me a little bit about yourself first? Can you tell me your name, what part of the country you’re from, how old are you, things like that?
- eloise navarro
Yeah, so my name is Eloise Navarro. Or I go by Elle L., EL. I’m in Portland, Oregon right now doing some local climate organizing, and I am 22 years old.
- astead herndon
Were you too young to vote in 2020, or were you able to vote in the 2020 election?
- eloise navarro
In the 2020 election, I did vote. I believe that was the first election I voted in.
- astead herndon
OK, and who did you vote for in 2020?
- eloise navarro
In 2020, I did vote for President Biden.
- astead herndon
OK. I guess one question I have is why did you vote for Biden in 2020? And do you expect to vote for Biden again in 2024?
- eloise navarro
I voted — I honestly voted for Biden pretty reluctantly, and I did cast a vote for him, you know, and under — the philosophy I was using at the time was, well, it’s not Trump. You know, we just went through four years of Trump and we can’t do that again. And so I didn’t feel any particular allegiance towards Biden. But at the time, I was like, well, it’s better than Trump. So that’s what motivated me to cast my vote. And I think at that time in 2020, perhaps I had a little bit more faith in the electoral system than I do now.
And so the question of would I vote for Biden again in this upcoming election is absolutely not. And I think I can’t talk about Biden and his choices for climate and for social justice without mentioning Palestine and the ongoing genocide and how I have no other way to describe it besides cruel and atrocious, Biden’s actions towards the international scene has been.
So yeah, I can confidently say that I will not be voting for Biden nor Trump in this upcoming election because if anything, the past year or two has proved that perhaps there isn’t as much of a divide between the Democratic and Republican parties that, you know, we used to think that there was.
- astead herndon
Is this a personal conviction for you or is this something you’re telling others? Like, as someone who does political activism, is it just that you’re saying you’ll no longer vote for Joe Biden or are you encouraging others to not — other young people to not vote for Joe Biden?
- eloise navarro
I am encouraging other folks. And I think I am certainly not the only one who is. I’m sure that y’all are seeing that there are active state-level campaigns to write in uncommitted or whatever makes sense for your state.
- astead herndon
By the way, you’re saying is a little different. Because uncommitted in the primary is a individual protest. You’re saying you’re not going to vote for him in November when the stakes, even to your own kind of admission, are quite real. Right?
- eloise navarro
Yeah, yeah. So I guess in that way, yeah, I feel comfortable saying that I would encourage folks not to vote. Yeah, in the November election, or to not vote for Biden.
- astead herndon
We know that the answer to that, or the political party response to that will always be that you are foregoing a voice kind of in democracy and making Donald Trump more likely to be the winner, someone who I think per your vote in 2020 you probably think is a worse President than Joe Biden, at the minimum. So what’s your response to that?
- eloise navarro
My response is that, at this point, Biden has shown that he’s not necessarily a better president than Trump, in my opinion.
- astead herndon
OK.
- eloise navarro
And so the reason I’m saying, you know, no to Biden is because I would rather Trump win and then us probably experience very similar impacts, negative impacts that we had from the Biden administration than let his administration know that in any way I approve of what he’s done or of what he’s going to do.
I guess the way I see it for me is not Trump versus Biden, it is people versus politics or people versus corporate entities and bad faith politicians.
- astead herndon
That’s helpful to understand. Is it also about teaching Democrats a lesson? It feels like some of that’s in there.
- eloise navarro
Oh, absolutely. I think, you know, honestly, I don’t know what happens behind closed doors with politicians. And I think perhaps there used to be a stronger divide between Republicans and Democrats. So I’m not sure how other people would feel about that. But now I think it’s pointing out — whether they know it or not — you are the same as Republicans and you are no better than them.
- astead herndon
You seem 100 percent confident right now. Are you 100 percent confident in your confidence? You know, like, are you definitely going to be — do you do you think you’ll be in the same place come November?
- eloise navarro
I feel pretty confident. And, you know, I could see some people shifting. But really, the reason I’m confident is because I am so deeply invested in community care and in community in general. And so I can be confident because I know that I have my people’s back and my people have my back. So in a way, it’s a little bit rebellious to say, yeah, absolutely, come November, I’m not going to give in. And I’m lucky to say that because of the relationships I’ve formed.
And I strongly encourage other folks to be more deeply rooted in community and divest a little bit from the electoral system and back into the people that are right in front of them.
- astead herndon
Well, thank you so much, Elle. I really appreciate your time. And I really think that this kind of explanation will be helpful for folks getting in the mind of the youths, which we know is not always easy for folks to do. So thank you so much for taking some time out and chatting with us.
- eloise navarro
Yeah. Yeah, of course. Thank you. Thank you for the good conversation.
[PHONE RINGING]
- ellie
Hello. Hello?
- astead herndon
Hello, can you hear me?
- ellie
Hi, yes, I can hear you. Hello.
- astead herndon
I was looking for Ellie.
- ellie
Yes, that is me. Hi.
- astead herndon
Hi. Thank you so much for picking up. I appreciate you taking some time out to chat with us. Ellie, can you tell me a little bit about yourself? Can you tell me what you do, how old you are, what part of the country you’re in, things like that?
- ellie
So I am — I’ll be 19 in two weeks.
- astead herndon
Congrats. Does that make you an Aries? I’m an Aries.
- ellie
I’m a Taurus, actually.
- astead herndon
Oh, yikes. We were about to bond, but then it just ended.
- ellie
Yeah. Yeah, so I’m a first year student right now at Bryn Mawr College, which is outside of Philadelphia. I’ve grown up in Pennsylvania for most of my life.
- astead herndon
Are you someone who considers herself a Democrat or Republican, has any kind of political leaning?
- ellie
Well, I was definitely a Democrat in the past. I would consider myself pretty politically homeless. I certainly vote for the Democrats because of the two-party system. But I — I’m, I would say, economically very progressive leftist. I’m also a radical feminist. So that’s — in terms of a lot of social issues on feminism, that puts me kind of pretty in a different, space than a lot of people would maybe say they’re liberals. So I don’t know if I would necessarily say I’m really a liberal.
- astead herndon
You know, you met our colleagues back in September last year when you were in New York for the climate march. And we were interested in talking to young people about how they were thinking about the presidential election in terms of a policy issue that was important to them, specifically climate. What were you thinking at that time when it came to President Biden and how are you thinking about your vote in November?
- ellie
Well, I think back then I was really, you know, I can’t remember if I knew this or not then, but I think at least what I remember is I was not expecting Biden to run again, actually. I was thinking that logically, you know, he’s old. He was going to step down. And I was kind of, I was prepared to get hyped for primaries and try to, you know, find a reasonable candidate to try to put in office.
Since then, the fact that we have now literally the same choices as back in 2020 is incredibly disheartening. I did get a ballot, a mail-in ballot for the primaries, but I’m actually not sure I’m even going to go through the trouble of using it, because what is the point? The incumbent’s running. Nobody’s running against him.
If I — actually, because it’s Pennsylvania and you can’t vote as an independent in primaries, if there was any competition with the Republican primaries, I would have registered as a Republican and voted for somebody who’s not Trump to try to get a different opposition to the Democrats. But that was also not a choice. So here we are. I mean, it’s not that I’m not going to vote in November. I certainly will be voting for Biden in November, because I do think it’s important to choose the lesser of two evils.
- astead herndon
When you talk to young people, your age cohort about this election, what is the overall feeling? Are they like you? Are they — maybe you’re disappointed, but probably going to vote for Biden in the end? Or, are you talking to people, other people we talked to, even including at that climate march, who say they’re actually encouraging people to not back Biden in November? What wins out?
- ellie
I think, you know, right now we’re not — I feel like we’re not quite close enough to it because there’s no competition in the primaries. I don’t think we’re really at a point where most people are talking that much about the election. I think my sense is at least the people that I’m around will absolutely vote for Biden because the lesser of two evils argument. I personally have very little sympathy for the idea that some moral perfectionism, it’s better to just vote for nobody because in my opinion, that means that you are accepting the fact that either party may win and that you think they’re somehow equally bad, which I think is a very naive opinion.
I do know that there are people who are kind of very purist and want to only vote for somebody they feel really in line with. I get the sense that that is not most people. I think most people my age in the end will be reasonable and will end up voting for Biden if that is the Democratic choice.
- astead herndon
Well, thank you so much. I really appreciate your time and thank you so much for letting us pick your brain a little.
- ellie
All right. Thank you so much.
While Ellie and Elle represent one perspective, not every young person is deeply engaged in politics. And many have priorities outside of climate change and foreign policy. In fact, when we talk to 18 to 35-year-olds who recently participated in “The New York Times” polling, this range was well represented.
[PHONE RINGING]
- kelvin
This is Kelvin.
- astead herndon
We heard interest in third party candidates.
- kelvin
I think the only one that’s really caught my eye is, I believe Cornel West has announced, apparently.
- astead herndon
Some interest in Donald Trump. How are you thinking about this year’s election? And did you vote in the Republican primary this year?
- kelvin
Not in the Republican primary. I did vote in the last election.
- astead herndon
Mm-hmm. In 2020?
- kelvin
Yeah.
- astead herndon
Who did you vote for then?
- kelvin
The Republicans.
- astead herndon
You voted for the Republicans? I imagine that includes Donald Trump at the top of the ticket?
- kelvin
Yep, absolutely.
- astead herndon
You know, this was a unique time because we’re very likely to have these two candidates again. Are you thinking about voting for Donald Trump again?
- kelvin
Absolutely, yeah.
And we heard the general sense of disappointment in both major party candidates —
[PHONE RINGING]
- sean
Hello.
- astead herndon
Hi. My name’s Astead Herndon. I’m a reporter with “The New York Times.” I was looking for Sean.
- sean
Yeah, that’s me.
— even among young people who supported Biden’s re-election,
- sean
I — you know, I got my degrees in history and political science. I worked for the government. I’m very invested in politics, despite the fact that I can’t really openly campaign for anyone because I’m a nonpartisan government employee and I take my job very seriously. I work for the Civil Rights Division. And most concerning to me is that more voters are — more young voters are undecided.
- astead herndon
They’re up for grabs.
- sean
And I think yeah, and particularly young people of color, which concerns me. If you traffic any of the internet, any of these more conservative spaces on the internet now, there is a pretty intentional targeting towards young Black voters, especially.
But one thing they agreed on, Biden 2024 feels different than Biden 2020.
- sean
I think my biggest frustration has been that the White House and the DNC have not acknowledged the problem, that they more or less kind of brush off the data. You know, I don’t want to say that they’re being cavalier about it, but they’re acting like it’s not going to matter. And I think it is. And it’s also not as unexpected as they make it seem, because Trump does hold records for the number of Black and Brown voters that voted Republican over the last couple of elections.
So It’s not a stretch to say that he’s going to gain with those voters. So, yeah, that does worry me.
After talking with Christina and a diverse set of young voters, there was one more thing I wanted to do, talk with someone close to the Biden campaign who could help me understand the strategy as it pertains to young people specifically. So the campaign connected me to Santiago Mayer, the 22-year-old director of Voters of Tomorrow, a left-leaning group founded in 2019 with one explicit goal — get Gen Z to vote.
- astead herndon
Can you introduce yourself and tell me what you do?
- santiago mayer
Yes, hi. I’m Santiago Mayer. I am the founder and executive director of Voters of Tomorrow. We are a Gen Z organization working to educate, engage and empower young voters.
- astead herndon
You know, we talked to the leader of NextGen, a political group that has also endorsed Biden in 2024, and they had just conducted a survey of young voters and wanted to talk to you about some of that. The polling show Biden winning 18 - to 35-year-olds by only 9 percent, which is a 15 percent drop-off from where he was in 2020. And that certainly overlaps with other things we’ve seen in data, in polling, that’s showing some drop-off between younger voters and their support of Biden right now, and specifically true among Gen Z.
I guess our first question for you was, what do you think is driving this?
- santiago mayer
Generally, when I’m looking at polling, my first question is to see how the questions were asked and what the actual methodology for the polling is. I think we’ve seen a lot of polling over the past few months that really doesn’t fully reach Gen Z. And obviously, NextGen is specializing in polling young people. So I won’t disparage their polling. But what I do think is important is, it is April of 2024. The election is not for another few months.
The campaign exists for a reason. And I think a lot of young people are kind of just burnt out from politics. They’ve lived with Trump administration, which was chaos every day, and they simply haven’t tuned in yet. And since the sort of tickets were lined up, we now know it’s going to be Biden v Trump. I think as we get closer to the election, we’re going to see that steady increase in Joe Biden’s vote share amongst young voters. And I feel very confident that Joe Biden is going to win Gen Z by a resounding margin.
- astead herndon
So, I guess, I don’t really hear an answer to the question of what’s driving that? I do hear answer that he’s going to fix it. I guess I want to ask again, what do you think? Do you think there’s any validity to the idea that young people, at this point, even if it’s early, are maybe less supportive of the Democratic president than they previously been?
- santiago mayer
No, listen. I think there’s — young people want to see their policies represented. And I think we’ve seen that through Joe Biden. I think the disconnect is really what young people, what policies young people know about. Because when we talk to young people, we see that they support a lot of the things that Joe Biden has done, but they don’t simply don’t know that they’ve happened.
They don’t know about the Inflation Reduction Act being the world’s biggest investment in fighting climate change. They don’t know about the bipartisan gun violence prevention bill. There are so many accomplishments that were driven by young people, and that people simply don’t know about.
- astead herndon
Is there anything in the numbers and data that’s coming out now about Joe Biden’s relationship to young people that has some warning signs? Is there anything in there that you would take to the campaign and say, hey, we got to do something about this?
- santiago mayer
Listen, I think the campaign needs to talk more about how abortion is impacting young people. I think that’s been an issue that has been held steady and important for young voters since Roe v Wade was overturned in 2022. And I think the campaign is starting to really realize that this is something that’s very important for young people.
- astead herndon
You know, for some of the young people we talked to, the age of both major party candidates is a real factor in their disillusionment with their options when they think about November. What is your response when you hear fellow young people say, hey, I don’t want to vote for an 81-year-old for four more years? Is Biden’s age turning voters of tomorrow off?
- santiago mayer
I don’t think so. I really think that when you look at Joe Biden, Donald Trump, we’re seeing a contrast between an old guy that overturned Roe v Wade on the right to an abortion, who denied the election, who denied climate change, who refused to take action on gun violence against another old guy who is not only insanely empathetic, but has been listening to young people on all of these issues.
We were just talking about warning signs. I think there’s so many more warning signs for Donald Trump — even including on age — then for Joe Biden.
- astead herndon
You know, anecdotally, it doesn’t really feel like young people love Joe Biden. And the data is telling me that young people don’t really love Joe Biden. But you seem to be telling me that young people do. Do I have that right?
- santiago mayer
I don’t think young people love any politicians. I think young people are very practical and they will vote for the politician and the elected official that will deliver results for them. And in this election, that decision is very clear. It is Joe Biden.
- astead herndon
You know, last question will be, for this episode, we talked to some climate activists who were not only not fully supportive of Biden, one person was actively organizing friends in a campaign to vote against him. You know, their central argument was that Biden has enabled a foreign policy disaster in Gaza. And frankly, they said kind of clearly, they wanted to teach Democrats a lesson when it comes to assuming that young voters would come home in November.
I know that you are confident in the Biden campaign. I know that you believe that Joe Biden is a better option than Republicans. I guess I’m asking, does any of you worry about the amount of anti-Biden sentiment that is at least being rhetorically spread by some young folks, by some activist groups, just looking at young folks right now?
- santiago mayer
I think it’s important to remember, that the loudest voices don’t represent all of us and that at the end of the day, no generation is always going to fully agree on everything. I think by and large, we have a lot of time to talk to all of these people and remind them of what we have been able to accomplish. And again, I would point back to where we were in April of 2020 and what young people were saying about Joe Biden then. And still, we had a record-high turnout with over 6 percent of young people voting for Joe Biden.
- astead herndon
Thank you so much for your time. I really appreciate you chatting with us and laying out your perspective on these things.
- santiago mayer
For sure. More than happy to join and always excited to talk again.
- astead herndon
Great. Have a great day.
- santiago mayer
Likewise. Thank you.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
After speaking with Santiago, we also received a statement from the Biden campaign outlining its ongoing efforts to reach young people. It read, “We have launched a more robust youth outreach campaign led by a dedicated youth vote team earlier than ever before that will feature campus organizers across every battleground state and has already included seven-figure advertising across social media.” In other words, don’t worry, Democrats, they’ve got this.
That’s “The Run-Up” for Thursday, April 18th, 2024. Now, the rundown.
On Monday in lower Manhattan, Donald Trump’s criminal trial began. He’s facing charges of falsifying business records in an attempt to cover up an affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. As jury selection went on inside the courthouse, a small group of Trump faithful gathered in a nearby park.
- archived recording
Our support for Donald Trump is strong, our side is bigger than their side, and we’re not going anywhere. And no matter the verdict that comes out, we are not shedding our support for Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday —
- archived recording (joe biden)
[APPLAUSE]:
Hello Scranton.
Joe Biden returned to his hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania —
- archived recording (joe biden)
Scranton values or Mar-a-Lago values? These are the competing visions for our economy.
— and gave a speech drawing a sharp contrast between himself and Trump. Folks, he’s coming for your money, your health care, and your Social Security. And we’re not going to let it happen. We’re not going to. Can’t let it happen.
He also cracked some jokes at the former president’s expense.
- archived recording (joe biden)
You know, I’ve already been delivering real results in a fiscally responsible way, but I not everyone’s feeling it. Just the other day, a defeated-looking guy came up to me and asked if I could help. He was drowning in debt. I said, I’m sorry, Donald, but I can’t help you.
There are 88 days until the Republican National Convention, 123 days until the Democratic National Convention, and 201 days until the general election. See you next week.
“The Run-Up” is reported by me, Astead Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez, Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It’s edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin with original music by Dan Powell, Marian Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Lanman and Elisheba Ittoop. It was mixed by Sophia Lanman and fact-checked by Caitlin Love. Special thanks to Paula Szuchman, Sam Dolnick, Larissa Anderson, David Halbfinger, Maddie Masiello, Mahima Chablani, and Jeffrey Miranda.
Do you have a question about the 2024 election? Email us at therunup@nytimes.com. Or better yet, record your question using the voice memo app on your phone and then send us the file. The email, again, is therunup@nytimes.com. And finally, if you like the show and want to get updates on latest episodes, follow our feed wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y’all.
